Does any know the concepts behind this article? Can anyone give me a summary of this article?
Here is the article, cycles to shocks: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/br/brma00sc.pdf, I need an English translation of the economy.
Link does not work, so I'm not sure that the correct item, but if "cycles to shocks: progress in business cycle theory" of Satyajit Chatterjee, thanks for bringing my attention. The basic question addressed by the article is, to what extent business cycles are fundamental to the way the economy and modern economies work and how far are "just" symptoms of something else. The paper argues in favor of this last point – that the cycles economic behavior are due to external. It also points to external behaviors that are already known – Solow waste. In statistics, a residue is the data that is not explained by the trend line, so that what he says is that the differences between real and statistically predicted labor productivity figures are sufficient to explain most of the economic cycle that the author has looked. Note that since these residues are not explained by the system, the economy seem and act as external shocks The author also points out the implications for policy makers: the "right" decisions depend our understanding of the underlying causes. If our understanding was wrong, we've been doing the wrong decisions. This document is part of a growing trend in the analysis. Humans tend to see patterns and order, even the intention, failing that – if it is an extreme example, such as believing in rain dances, or giving credit to the store that sold a winning lottery ticket, or more subtle, such as giving credit to a collector who values superior to its competitors. But now, thanks to computers, we have much better tools to observe the random components of the system behavior, and when we look carefully, we see randomness much more than you ever imagined. A classic book on the subject with respect to financial markets is as follows: "fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in the Markets "by Nassim Taleb. http://abbottanalytics.blogspot.com/2007/11/random-things.html Others who have studied the issue include Benoit Mandelbrot, the" father of fractals ", which concluded that standard statistical methods used to analyze the financial markets were fundamentally wrong and promote the type of computer-based analysis. http://www.bearcave.com/bookrev/misbehavior_of_markets.html (Mandelbrot has a beautiful diatribe about why the Gaussian distribution is not and should not be called "normal" – and when it comes to human systems, is clearly the right).
Cycling your Aquarium 2: Applying the Concepts (v2)
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